铜价月线四连阳 伦铜再创历史新高！铜市能否续攀高峰？

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are significantly influenced by the changing expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside tight supply fundamentals and agreements among Chinese copper raw material negotiation groups to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, leading to a bullish trend in copper prices [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The SMM copper concentrate index continued to decline, reporting -42.33 USD/ton in November 2025, a decrease of 0.39 USD/ton from October [2]. - The consensus among CSPT members includes reducing copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, maintaining the Benchmark system, and establishing a blacklist for suppliers and testing agencies to prevent market disruption [2]. - In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 9.75% [3]. Inventory Trends - National copper inventories in major regions decreased for four consecutive weeks, with a reduction of 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons as of December 1, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - LME copper inventories increased from 133,600 tons at the end of October to 152,950 tons by November 28, reflecting a contrasting trend in overseas inventories [4]. Market Outlook - Future copper price movements will be influenced by domestic macroeconomic indicators such as CPI, PPI, and industrial output, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [5]. - The market is expected to experience a "supply reduction, weak consumption" scenario, with a slight increase in weekly inventories anticipated [6]. - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with tight copper supply fundamentals expected to sustain high copper prices despite potential pressures from macroeconomic developments [6]. Institutional Commentary - Jinrui Futures noted that the recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the CSPT consensus strengthen the expectation of tighter copper supply, although actual market conditions need to be realized [7]. - Maike Futures highlighted that the increase in electrolytic copper production is due to improved raw material supply, while the high premiums in the spot market indicate tightening future supply expectations [8]. Price Forecasts - The Chilean National Copper Corporation forecasts an average copper price of 4.45 USD/pound in 2025 and 4.55 USD/pound in 2026, while JP Morgan predicts a rise to 12,000 USD/ton in Q1 2026 [9]. - UBS expects copper prices to continue rising due to ongoing supply disruptions and strong long-term demand driven by electrification and clean energy investments, with price targets set at 11,500 USD/ton for March 2026 and 13,000 USD/ton for December 2026 [10].