抢铜浪潮延续！LME亚洲仓库提货订单激增，铜价新高之旅停不下来？

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices reached a historic high on December 3, driven by a surge in delivery orders at the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs exacerbating global supply tightness [1] Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - LME copper futures surged by 2.72%, hitting a peak of $11,540 per ton, surpassing the previous record set earlier in the week [1] - Mining stocks also rose, with Chilean copper producer Antofagasta Plc's shares increasing by over 5%, marking a new all-time high [1] - The LME spot copper premium relative to three-month contracts reached $86 per ton, the highest since mid-October, indicating tight supply in the copper market [6] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - LME data showed a net cancellation of copper warehouse receipts in Asian warehouses amounting to 50,725 tons, bringing the total registered LME copper receipts to the lowest level since July at 105,275 tons [2] - The primary sources of copper in the LME warehouse network are China and Russia, with increased withdrawal activity from Asian warehouses suggesting traders are moving copper to the U.S. for arbitrage [5] - Global copper supply has been under pressure due to production halts at several major mines, contributing to a more than 30% increase in LME copper prices this year [6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Tariff Implications - Analysts warn that the ongoing dynamics may lead to severe global supply tightness in the first quarter of next year, with predictions that copper prices could further exceed historical highs [9] - The potential for U.S. tariffs on primary copper products has led to increased shipments to U.S. ports, with producers announcing record premiums for European and Asian customers to compensate for lost profits from U.S. sales [8] - Current global copper surplus is concentrated in the U.S., while supply in other regions is tightening, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] Group 4: Production Challenges - Recent production forecasts have been downgraded, with Ivanhoe Mines reducing output expectations for its Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to recovery challenges from earlier flooding [10] - Glencore, the sixth-largest copper producer globally, has also lowered its copper production targets for next year, indicating a 40% decline in output since 2018 [10] - Commodity Market Analytics suggests that copper prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $12,000 per ton [10]