Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates an unexpected decrease in private sector jobs in the U.S. for November, heightening expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting [2][7]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Spot gold is trading around $4207 per ounce, while silver has reached a historic high of $58.95 per ounce, supported by silver's strong performance, which has increased over 100% this year [2][7]. - The strong performance of silver is attributed to supply shortages, liquidity concerns, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list, which has also led to slight increases in platinum and palladium prices [2][7]. - The probability of a rate cut next week is nearly 90%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, as investors await the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key inflation indicator preferred by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. services index remains stable, with the ISM report showing a non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 52.6 for November, slightly above October's 52.4, indicating ongoing labor market weakness and rising input prices [2][7]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been fluctuating downwards, retreating from a high of 4.1800 to a low of 4.1000, before rebounding to around 4.0749% on December 4, which has stimulated the upward trend in gold prices [2][7]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The recent analysis suggests that the labor market is a driving force behind Federal Reserve policy, and if negative interpretations persist, more rate cuts may occur within the next 12 months, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and potentially driving its price higher [8]. - Short-term trading strategies may focus on buying on dips, while longer-term strategies are available through membership services [3][9].
美元加速承压下跌 英镑强势上涨！
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-04 05:22