澳大利亚通胀高企 家庭支出激增推升2026年加息预期

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slowdown in overall economic growth in Australia during the third quarter, domestic demand remains strong, leading to heightened market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to end its easing cycle early and potentially raise interest rates in the first half of 2026 [1][3]. Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.3% month-on-month increase in household spending for October, marking the largest single-month growth in nearly two years, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 0.6% [1][3]. - Year-on-year growth in household spending rose from 5.1% in September to 5.6% in October, driven by promotional activities and major cultural events [1][3]. - Goods spending increased by 1.7% month-on-month, while services spending grew by 0.8% [1][3]. Inflation and Consumer Price Index - The weighted Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October reached an annual rate of 3.8%, exceeding the previous value of 3.5% and market expectations of 3.6% [1][3]. - The CPI remained flat month-on-month, contrary to expectations of a moderate decline, indicating persistent price pressures with "almost no signs of weakening" [1][3]. Economic Indicators and RBA Policy Outlook - The actual GDP growth rate for the third quarter was only 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (expected 0.7%) and 2.1% year-on-year (expected 2.2%), indicating weaker-than-expected performance [2][4]. - However, private final demand showed strong growth of 1.1% for the quarter, suggesting that the internal economic momentum is still accelerating [2][4]. - The RBA currently maintains the official cash rate at 3.60%, with indicators suggesting the economy is nearing capacity limits, including a labor market at or near full employment and high capacity utilization rates in business surveys [2][4]. Future Interest Rate Expectations - Economists predict that any growth above trend will exert upward pressure on prices and wages, leading the RBA to potentially raise interest rates as early as the first half of 2026 if economic growth accelerates and the labor market tightens further [5]. - The market anticipates that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, but the focus will be on the policy statement regarding future positions [5].