Evaluating ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock's Actual Performance

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips has demonstrated significant long-term stock performance, outperforming the S&P 500 over the past five years, despite recent short-term challenges related to oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Over the past five years, ConocoPhillips' stock has increased by 129.2%, while its total return, including reinvested dividends, has risen by 173.4% [2]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 has shown a total return of 86.7% over the same period [2]. - However, ConocoPhillips has underperformed the S&P 500 in the one- and three-year periods, with stock price declines of 13.7% and 25%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Oil Prices Impact - Brent oil prices have decreased by 14% over the past year and more than 25% over the last three years, closely mirroring the decline in ConocoPhillips' stock price [3]. - Despite recent declines, crude oil prices have rallied nearly 33% over the last five years, contributing to the company's long-term stock performance [3]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - ConocoPhillips has made several strategic acquisitions to enhance its portfolio, including the acquisition of Concho Resources for $9.7 billion in 2020 and Shell's position in the Delaware basin for $9.5 billion in 2021 [5]. - In 2023, the company acquired a 50% interest in the Surmont Canadian oil sands facility for $2.7 billion and previously purchased Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion [5]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company has capitalized on lower crude prices post-pandemic to acquire low-cost oil and gas resources, positioning itself to generate more free cash flow even at lower oil prices [6]. - These strategic moves have enabled ConocoPhillips to pay a growing dividend and repurchase shares, enhancing shareholder value [6][7].