库存供应仍充足 棕榈油期货有望承压领跌

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.19% to 8632.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Malaysia's palm oil inventory surged to its highest level in over six years due to a decline in exports in November, with a 10% increase from the previous month to 2.71 million tons, marking a 47% rise compared to the same period last year [2] - On December 3, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports reached 300 tons, a 200% increase compared to the previous trading day [3] - The CNF price for 24-degree palm oil for December and January shipments was reported at 1049 to 1051 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 20 to 27 USD/ton, which translates to a total cost of 8860 to 8870 yuan/ton upon arrival in South China, up by 160 to 210 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CICC Futures noted that external factors stimulating the oil market are receding, shifting market focus to the MPOB monthly report. High inventory levels of domestic edible oils limit the upward momentum for soybean and rapeseed oils, with palm oil futures expected to face downward pressure [4] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures highlighted that the weak ADP employment data in the U.S. for November and the potential for a rate cut in December are contributing to a weaker dollar index, while oil prices remain low. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to reach 2.66 million tons in November, up from 2.46 million tons the previous month, indicating ample supply. Weather conditions in Southeast Asia may impact supply, leading to a forecasted reduction in production, which could provide support for prices. Short-term palm oil is expected to trade within a range [4]