下任美联储主席指向哈西特，降息风暴来袭？

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming unusually public, with Kevin Hassett emerging as the frontrunner after the candidate list was narrowed down to one by Trump [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection - As of December 3, the probability of Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair exceeds 80% according to Kalshi [2]. - The selection process has been led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, reducing the initial list of 11 candidates to 5, including Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, current Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Reeder [3]. - Hassett, who previously served as the Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and is currently the Director of the National Economic Council, is seen as a respected candidate by Trump [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - If Hassett assumes the role, significant shifts in monetary policy are expected, potentially leading to a clearer and more immediate interest rate cut cycle [5]. - Hassett has criticized the Fed and Powell, advocating for lower interest rates and arguing that high rates harm the economy more than inflation itself [5]. - Current market indicators show a high probability (89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January having a probability of 64.8% [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street anticipates that Hassett's nomination could drive risk assets higher, although uncertainty may arise if Powell does not step down shortly after the announcement [7].