下任美联储主席指向哈西特 降息风暴来袭？

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming unusually public, with Kevin Hassett emerging as the frontrunner after the candidate list was narrowed down to one by Trump [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection - The candidate list for the next Federal Reserve Chair has been reduced from 11 to 5, with Kevin Hassett being the leading candidate [3]. - Other candidates still in consideration include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, current Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [3]. - Hassett's probability of becoming the next Fed Chair exceeds 80% according to betting site Kalshi [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - If Hassett becomes the Fed Chair, significant shifts in monetary policy are expected, potentially leading to a clearer and more immediate interest rate cut cycle [5]. - Hassett has previously defended the independence of the Fed but has recently criticized it and supported Trump's calls for lower interest rates [5]. - He believes that high interest rates harm the economy more than inflation itself and advocates for deeper and sustained rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following reports of Hassett being the frontrunner, U.S. long-term interest rates dropped immediately, indicating market sensitivity to potential policy changes [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 89%, with a 64.8% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January [6]. - Wall Street anticipates that Hassett's nomination could drive risk assets higher, although uncertainty remains if Powell does not step down [7].