债市日报：12月4日

Market Overview - The bond market showed significant weakness on December 4, with long-term bonds dragging down overall market sentiment, leading to a decline in government bond futures across the board [1] - The main government bond futures contracts closed lower, with the 30-year contract down 1.04% to 112.45, marking a new low since November 22, 2024 [2] - The interbank bond yield generally rose by 2-3 basis points, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 3.5 basis points to 2.271% [2] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - Recent rumors and speculations have intensified market anxiety, causing some investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainties regarding future easing policies [1] - The upcoming mid-December meetings are seen as critical for determining next year's policy direction, with market expectations beginning to take shape [1] Fund Flows and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 180.8 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term funding rates mostly increased, with the overnight Shibor rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.302% [5] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 2.51 basis points to 4.063% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.917% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.1 basis points to 3.490%, while German and Italian yields fell [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 for the 3-year bond and 3.88 for the 7-year bond, indicating strong demand [4] - Yunnan Province's local bonds saw bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 19 times, reflecting robust investor interest [4] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in December, Japanese government bond yields may rise, indicating potential volatility in long-term bond rates [8] - Huachuang Securities suggested that market-driven short-term profit-taking could stabilize sentiment, as the futures market approaches previous low points [8] - Huaxi Fixed Income emphasized the importance of maintaining perspective amid market noise, as various speculations could serve as pricing anchors for the upcoming policy announcements [8]