全球“抢铜”白热化，LME库存告急铜价飙升

Core Viewpoint - A global "copper rush" is driving copper prices to unprecedented heights, with concerns over potential U.S. tariffs exacerbating fears of a global supply crisis [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On December 3, copper prices reached a historic high of $11,540 per ton, with LME copper futures rising by 2.72% [1] - The surge in copper prices has positively impacted global mining stocks, exemplified by a more than 5% increase in Antofagasta's stock price [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is experiencing a significant imbalance in supply and demand, with traders warning that copper is rapidly flowing to the U.S. to avoid potential tariff risks [2][3] - LME warehouse data indicates a net cancellation of 50,725 tons of copper, leading to the lowest registered warehouse quantity since July at 105,275 tons [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The surge in demand for physical copper from Asian warehouses suggests traders are eager to extract copper to capitalize on price differences, with LME spot copper premiums reaching $86 per ton, the highest since mid-October [3] - The tariff threats proposed by former U.S. President Trump have significantly influenced the physical market, driving U.S. copper futures prices higher and increasing shipments to U.S. ports [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Major metal traders predict that these trade dynamics could lead to severe global supply tightness in Q1 of the following year, with forecasts suggesting copper prices may exceed historical highs [4] - The copper market is facing supply challenges due to mine shutdowns in regions like Chile and Indonesia, with companies like Ivanhoe Mines and Glencore lowering their production forecasts [4] - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for copper prices, with expectations that they could rise to $12,000 per ton amid both fundamental and financial drivers [4]