AI持续驱动全球经济增长，新兴市场货币前景分化

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant role of artificial intelligence (AI) in driving global economic growth in the coming years, despite uncertainties from new U.S. trade policies [1] - AI-related capital expenditures are projected to boost U.S. economic growth by approximately 1 percentage point in the first half of 2025 [1] - The resilience of the global economy is partly attributed to pre-emptive trade orders and exemptions before the implementation of tariffs [1] Group 2 - Global economic growth is expected to maintain around 3% with slight variations, driven by ongoing large-scale industrial investments in the U.S. [2] - The U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at rates of 1.9% and 2.1% over the next two years, while the Eurozone and China are projected to grow at lower rates [2] - Market volatility is influenced by uncertainties regarding AI valuations, investment returns, and energy constraints, alongside concerns over U.S. government shutdowns affecting economic data transparency [2] Group 3 - Central banks in Western economies are expected to gradually slow down their easing cycles due to inflation not stabilizing at target levels [3] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain current interest rates until the end of 2026, while the Federal Reserve may implement three rate cuts [3] - Emerging market central banks have initiated easing cycles, but the pace varies based on domestic inflation and growth prospects [3] Group 4 - The outlook for the U.S. dollar remains positive, driven by extensive AI capital expenditure plans, which could transform its economic and geopolitical standing [4] - High-yield currencies in emerging markets are expected to show resilience, while the overall outlook for emerging market currencies appears dim due to the strengthening dollar [4] - The dollar's strength is anticipated to continue until 2026, influenced by U.S. economic exceptionalism [4] Group 5 - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to rising fiscal premiums and the overall strength of the dollar, with expectations of upward risk for the USD/JPY exchange rate [5] - Despite potential market risk aversion, the yen's weakness may negatively impact other Asian currencies [5]