中加基金权益周报︱利空消息扰动，长债表现承压

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 252.2 billion, 351.4 billion, and 112.5 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 39.1 billion, 325.9 billion, and 112.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 195.7 billion with a net financing amount of 143.9 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 328.1 billion and a net financing amount of 113.5 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market showed weak performance due to concerns over bond fund redemptions and risks associated with real estate bonds, influenced by rumors of new redemption fees and the Vanke incident [2][9] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's MLF operations released signals of support, maintaining a stable funding environment across the month, with R001 and R007 rates rising by 3.8 basis points and 2.7 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3][11] Policy and Fundamentals - Industrial profits significantly declined in October, and the manufacturing PMI for November remained weak. High-frequency data indicates a divergence in production performance, with weak demand in real estate and exports but strong consumer spending related to travel. Prices for food and production materials have mostly rebounded [4][12] Overseas Market - Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish sentiments, and weak performance in the U.S. September PPI and sales data led to increased expectations for a rate cut in December FOMC. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.02%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [5][13] Equity Market - A-shares rebounded significantly last week, influenced by gains in U.S. tech stocks, with leading increases in the communication, electronics, and non-ferrous sectors. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.74 trillion, down 128.1 billion from the previous week, with market activity concentrated in communication and non-ferrous sectors [6][14] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has shown weak performance since November, primarily due to the market's weak capacity to absorb long-term bonds. The duration of fiscal bond issuance has been increasing, and some banks' interest rate risk indicators are nearing regulatory limits. As year-end approaches, the ability of banks to absorb long-term bonds is further weakened, compounded by poor performance in insurance products. The bond market curve may continue to steepen, with cautious investor sentiment expected to persist [7][15]