2026银行二永债，交易为主下沉为辅

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trading activity of bank perpetual bonds (二永债) has increased significantly in 2025, with daily transaction volumes and the proportion of these bonds in the overall credit bond market rising from 31% in 2024 to 39% in 2025 [1][21] - Major non-bank institutions, including funds, wealth management, insurance, and other asset management products, have increased their allocation to perpetual bonds, with net purchases reaching 325.8 billion, 386.5 billion, 43.2 billion, and 433.8 billion yuan respectively [1][21] - The demand for perpetual bonds may face pressure in 2026 due to structural impacts, particularly from new fund sales fee regulations that could lead to redemption pressures on short and medium-term bond funds [2][28] Group 2 - The net supply of perpetual bonds is expected to remain low, with state-owned banks showing stable issuance while smaller banks may continue to increase supply due to declining capital adequacy ratios [3][9] - The trading characteristics of perpetual bonds in 2025 show a "top and bottom" pattern in yield spreads, with slight downward adjustments in the 3-year and 5-year spreads, while the 10-year spreads have increased [4][11] - The trading environment for perpetual bonds has become more challenging, requiring institutions to engage in more frequent trading to enhance returns, especially as the yield spreads have narrowed [5][12] Group 3 - The performance of perpetual bonds has been differentiated, with short-term and low-grade bonds performing strongly while long-term bonds have lagged behind [16][17] - The insurance sector has shown a weaker demand for perpetual bonds in recent years, influenced by declining yields and the introduction of new accounting standards that affect the valuation of these bonds [37][38] - The overall market sentiment and trading dynamics for perpetual bonds are expected to be influenced by regulatory changes and market conditions, with potential opportunities arising from adjustments in fund management practices [28][33]