Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-04 10:12Group 1 - The bond market experienced increased volatility in November, with a general upward trend in yields and a slight steepening of the yield curve, as the 10-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points (BP) to 1.84% and the 1-year yield increased by 2 BP to 1.4% [1][7][8] - Factors influencing the bond market included fluctuations in liquidity, the stock-bond relationship, and changing policy expectations, leading to cautious market sentiment [1][7][8] - The yield curve showed a divergence in movements across different maturities, with the short and medium-term yields rising more significantly than the long-term yields [8][17][25] Group 2 - Looking ahead to December, key focus areas include the outcomes of major central meetings and the potential for institutional behavior to drive early positioning in the market [2][3][26] - The government is expected to have a net supply of approximately 650 billion yuan in government bonds, returning to a lower level for the year, with specific allocations for various types of bonds [2][39][40] - The liquidity environment is anticipated to remain balanced, although there may be short-term pressures due to large maturities of certificates of deposit [2][45][48] Group 3 - The upcoming central economic work conference is expected to provide guidance on macroeconomic policies, including monetary easing and fiscal measures, with a focus on consumption and real estate [3][55][56] - The market is also watching for potential adjustments in monetary policy, particularly regarding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the implications of recent changes in bank deposit products [3][58] - The real estate sector is under scrutiny for potential new policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with expectations for coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides [3][57]