成本跌势大于价格跌势 2025年热轧钢厂盈利整体好转

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the hot-rolled coil market has experienced a downward trend in prices since 2021, with a slight recovery in the third quarter of 2025, but a return to lower price levels in the fourth quarter [1][4] - In 2025, the average profit for hot-rolled coils was 49.06 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 311.61%, with the highest profit reaching 264 yuan/ton and the lowest at -146 yuan/ton [1][2] - The cost structure of hot-rolled coils is heavily influenced by the prices of raw materials, particularly coke and iron ore, which account for 55% to 60% of total costs [2][3] Group 2 - The average cost of hot-rolled coils in 2025 was 3244.7 yuan/ton, down 10.9% year-on-year, while the average price was 3355.95 yuan/ton, down 8.64% year-on-year [2][3] - Monthly production of hot-rolled coils in 2025 is expected to reach 338.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.15%, with production peaking in October at 29.44 million tons [3][4] - Despite overall profitability in the hot-rolled coil sector, the fourth quarter saw price declines due to high supply pressure, leading to losses in some product categories [4][5] Group 3 - December is anticipated to bring a potential recovery in profits for hot-rolled coils, driven by a decrease in raw material prices and a possible reduction in production due to maintenance [4][5] - The market outlook suggests a low-price rebound for steel due to macroeconomic factors, although demand remains weak and supply is currently in a reduction phase [5]