铜价创下历史新高，逼仓风险与供应紧张共推涨势

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and regional tightness in global copper inventories, with significant implications for the copper industry and its supply chain [1][2][4]. Price Movement - On December 3, LME copper futures reached a record high of $11,540 per ton, closing at $11,448.5 per ton, marking a 2.72% increase. On December 4, domestic copper futures also hit historical highs, with Shanghai copper at 90,980 yuan per ton and international copper at 82,080 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 2.26% and 2.96% respectively [2][3]. Supply Chain Impact - The impact of rising copper prices varies across the supply chain. Overseas mines benefit the most from price increases, while smelting companies with high external copper ore procurement face greater challenges. Copper processing companies are experiencing rising costs and low processing fees, leading to pressure on profit margins [6][7]. Inventory Dynamics - Global copper inventories are increasingly concentrated in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in Asia. As of December 3, LME copper inventory stood at 162,150 tons, with a significant reduction in registered warehouse receipts [3][4]. Future Price Predictions - Analysts suggest that copper prices may continue to rise, but potential negative factors or unmet demand expectations could lead to significant price corrections. The expectation of strong demand from AI and renewable energy sectors is a key driver, but the market remains cautious about high prices suppressing downstream consumption [9][10]. Market Conditions - The overall demand recovery in the domestic market remains weak, with manufacturing inventory replenishment cycles yet to start. This situation complicates risk management for companies across the copper supply chain, leading to increased competition and potential restructuring within the industry [8].