【今日关注】国内商品期市开盘多数下跌！棕榈油、铜、螺纹钢等热门品种解读！

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most contracts declining, particularly in the chemical sector where rubber fell by 1.58% [1] - Non-metallic building materials experienced a complete decline, with glass down by 1.47% [1] - Shipping futures also saw a decline, with the shipping index (European line) dropping by 1.45% [1] - Most energy products decreased, with fuel oil down by 0.45% [1] - Precious metals showed an upward trend, with silver rising by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market Insights - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures slightly decreased, following the trend of Dalian palm oil futures, with the benchmark February palm oil contract closing down by 3 ringgit, or 0.07%, at 4,156 ringgit per ton [14] - A recent survey indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six-and-a-half-year high due to declining exports and record production [14] - The Malaysian Federal Land Development Authority received orders to evacuate palm oil plantation lands, which may impact operations and national production [14] Group 3: Copper Market Developments - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.74% to 90,760 yuan per ton [15] - The London Metal Exchange reported a significant increase in copper delivery applications, surging by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, marking the largest increase by tonnage since 2013 [15] - Ivanhoe Mines announced that the Kamoa-Kakula project aims for copper production targets of 380,000 to 420,000 tons in 2026 and 500,000 to 540,000 tons in 2027 [15] Group 4: Rebar Steel Market Outlook - Rebar prices are expected to show a strong fluctuation, with the RB2601 contract projected to rise to around 3,200 yuan [18] - The rebar market in December is relatively strong, supported by reduced production and inventory depletion, leading to shortages in some regions [18] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, construction activity in southern regions and rising winter storage expectations are expected to support rebar prices [18] Group 5: Logistics and Economic Indicators - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index for November was 50.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [19] - The business volume index also rose to 50.9%, indicating a balanced recovery across regions, with central and western regions exceeding the national level [19] Group 6: Global Economic Context - The U.S. ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, the largest drop in two and a half years, further increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [20] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approaching 90% [20]