丙烯酸丁酯“出海”再受阻 巴西反倾销来袭 万华、华谊或遭重击

Core Viewpoint - Brazil has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese butyl acrylate, marking the second trade remedy investigation against China's acrylate industry within three months, reflecting tensions arising from China's rapid chemical industry expansion and global market rebalancing [1][2]. Industry Overview - China's butyl acrylate industry has achieved significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with total domestic capacity exceeding 4 million tons per year by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 7.24% over the past five years, and accounting for nearly half of global capacity [2][8]. - The surge in production capacity has led to a decrease in import dependency, but it has also created oversupply pressures, making exports a crucial avenue for capacity digestion [2][8]. Export Dynamics - China is expected to export between 250,000 to 260,000 tons of butyl acrylate in 2025, despite a decrease compared to 2024, indicating that exports remain vital for balancing the domestic market [2][10]. - Brazil has been a significant destination for China's butyl acrylate exports, consistently ranking among the top ten export markets, and is considered an important growth point in Latin America [2][10]. Impact of Anti-Dumping Investigation - The initiation of the anti-dumping investigation is expected to directly impact the market dynamics, as Brazilian local chemical companies feel competitive pressure from Chinese imports [2][10]. - The investigation period coincides with a phase of concentrated capacity release and intensified export competition from China, leading to a notable decline in export volumes, with October 2025 exports at 26,000 tons, down 10.34% month-on-month, and a cumulative annual decline of 12.38% [5][10]. Long-term Implications - The obstruction in the Brazilian market is likely to exacerbate domestic overcapacity issues in China, further driving down product prices and narrowing industry profit margins [6][11]. - There is a potential for a ripple effect, where other countries may adopt similar trade protection measures, creating broader barriers for Chinese butyl acrylate exports [6][11]. - Smaller enterprises reliant on exports may face production risks if they cannot quickly adjust their market strategies, while larger firms, despite having better resilience, will incur additional costs associated with market transitions [6][11].