2026矿业“冰火两重天”：铜、镍“高烧”不止，铁矿石、煤炭步入“寒潮”？

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are signaling a strong bullish trend, with UBS forecasting a new upward cycle starting in 2026 due to frequent disruptions in global copper production and surging demand from the renewable energy sector [3][8]. Supply Constraints - By 2026, copper supply will face multiple constraints, including declining ore grades, long project lead times (over 10 years), and stricter environmental policies, potentially leading to a significant shortage [3][8]. - The Simandou project in Guinea is expected to add a substantial amount of iron ore supply in 2026, but weak demand from China's real estate sector may limit long-term consumption [9]. Demand Drivers - The demand for copper will be significantly boosted by the electric vehicle sector, where the copper usage per vehicle is 3-4 times higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, as well as by wind power, solar energy, and grid upgrades. By 2030, the renewable energy sector is projected to contribute over 20% of global copper demand [3][8]. Commodity Analysis - Aluminum production in China is nearing policy limits, while energy costs in Europe and the U.S. are causing production cuts. Long-term demand is expected to improve due to lightweighting and renewable energy applications [9]. - Nickel market dynamics are complex, with ongoing capacity releases in Indonesia suppressing prices. Future focus should be on the supply-demand balance of battery-grade nickel sulfate and technological changes [9]. - Precious metals, including gold and platinum group metals, are influenced by macroeconomic variables such as real interest rates and dollar trends. The shift from palladium to platinum is expected to support platinum demand [9]. - Coal markets are facing pressure from emission reduction policies in developed markets, but demand from emerging markets like India is providing some support [9]. Investment Recommendations - UBS recommends prioritizing investments in leading companies with low-cost, long-life copper resources, while also focusing on high-grade iron ore producers and niche markets for renewable metals like lithium and cobalt [9][10]. - Caution is advised for investments in nickel and cobalt due to potential oversupply, and attention should be paid to China's policy changes in real estate and infrastructure that may impact short-term prices [9][10]. Strategic Approach - The investment strategy for the mining sector in 2026 should follow a "policy by product" principle, focusing on copper as a core asset, selectively choosing iron ore stocks, and waiting for improvements in the supply-demand structure for nickel and cobalt [10].