Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-04 11:25Core Viewpoint - Ideal Automotive (02015) is projected to experience a decline in vehicle sales revenue in Q3 2025, with a significant drop of 37.4% compared to Q3 2024, and a 10.4% decrease from Q2 2025, indicating potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth in the near term [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The vehicle sales revenue for Q3 2025 is estimated at RMB 259 billion (approximately USD 36 billion), down from RMB 413 billion in Q3 2024 [1][3]. - The vehicle gross margin for Q3 2025 is projected to be 15.5%, a decrease from 20.9% in Q3 2024 and 19.4% in Q2 2025. Excluding the estimated costs related to the recall of the Ideal MEGA, the gross margin would be 19.8% [1][3]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - Ideal Automotive's electric models, particularly the Ideal i8 and i6, are showing strong demand, with total orders exceeding 100,000 units [1][3]. - Starting in November, Ideal Automotive will implement a dual battery supplier model for the i6 to address supply chain constraints, with plans to increase monthly production capacity to 20,000 units by early next year [1][3]. - The L series is set for a new redesign in 2026, focusing on a streamlined SKU setup to enhance market coverage and supply efficiency, while also improving luxury feel and user experience [2][4]. Group 3: Future Projections - Following the product upgrade cycle, the company anticipates a recovery in sales growth, with projected sales of 400,000 units in 2025, 490,000 units in 2026, and 670,000 units in 2027. Corresponding revenues are expected to be RMB 1,122 billion, RMB 1,345 billion, and RMB 1,715 billion respectively [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 11 billion in 2025, RMB 28 billion in 2026, and RMB 58 billion in 2027 [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2 in 2026, leading to a target stock price of USD 20.69 (HKD 87.85), indicating an upside potential of 15% and 26% from current prices [2][4].