基金观点｜运舟资本周应波：市场处于“牛市中场休息”，AI迎来“Google时刻”

Market Overview - The stock market in November experienced fluctuations, with major technology indices undergoing adjustments, including the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and Hang Seng Technology Index, while the Shanghai Composite Index has largely digested the pressure above 4000 points [1][8] - Domestic industrial sectors are advancing anti-involution policies, which are expected to stabilize and rebound industrial product prices, with the PPI deflation situation likely to improve [1][8] - The demand outlook for the domestic real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and the trend of domestic manufacturing investment shifting overseas is expected to continue, leading to cautious capacity expansion across various industries [1][9] Real Estate Sector - The pressure of asset deflation remains significant, highlighted by the Vanke bond default event, marking the final phase of "clearing" in the real estate industry [2][9] - Since Q3, the pace of housing price declines in first- and second-tier cities has accelerated, leading to substantial pressure on residents' asset values [2][9] - The ongoing shrinkage of real estate assets is expected to continue impacting consumer growth, necessitating macroeconomic policies in 2026 to stabilize the situation [2][9] AI Industry Insights - The AI industry is currently viewed as being in the "early stage of bubble formation," with the AI technology revolution beginning with the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 at the end of 2022, expected to last for decades [3][10] - AI infrastructure is identified as a key feature of the first phase of the AI technology revolution, akin to the historical adoption of steam engines, electricity, and the internet [3][11] - The large-scale application of AI is crucial for the sustainability of AI infrastructure, with significant user bases already established, such as 800 million weekly active users for GPT and 250 million MAU for domestic platforms [4][12] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a "healthy bull market pause," where adjustments present opportunities for research and positioning for 2026 [2][10] - The "Google moment" is anticipated to be a pivotal point for AI applications, with the potential for significant economic value creation if Google can enhance user experiences through AI models [4][12] - The focus on technology innovation and industry growth is expected to yield investment returns in the long term, despite current market adjustments [5][13]