债市连续调整，原因是什么？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a significant decline on December 4, with all government bond futures showing negative performance, particularly the 30-year bond futures reaching a new low since November 23, 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close on December 4, the main contracts for government bond futures across all maturities fell, with the 30-year bond futures down by 1.04% to 112.45 yuan, hitting a low of 112.24 yuan during the day [2][3]. - The 10-year bond futures decreased by 0.35% to 107.67 yuan, while the 5-year and 2-year bond futures fell by 0.24% and 0.05%, respectively [2][3]. - In the cash market, the yield on the 30-year bond rose by 1.9 basis points to 2.26%, and the 10-year bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 1.85% [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The overall weakness in the bond market since December is attributed to multiple factors, including domestic trading conditions, liquidity tightening, and changes in monetary policy expectations [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a 180.8 billion yuan reverse repo operation, leading to a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan on December 4, which influenced market dynamics [5]. - Analysts noted that the decline in bond prices is partly due to market expectations regarding the scale of government bond transactions and the central bank's operations [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations for year-end allocation trading dependent on the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [7]. - If public funds cannot participate in driving year-end allocations, the sentiment in the bond market may remain weak, with resistance to yield declines [7]. - Analysts suggest that the liquidity of ultra-long bonds may stabilize as year-end pressures on banks ease, potentially leading to a recovery in demand for long-duration bonds [7].