信用债年末如何配置？机构建议把握结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond market is experiencing low-level fluctuations in yields as it approaches year-end, facing challenges such as seasonal funding volatility and weakened institutional allocation, while also presenting structural opportunities due to the release of amortized bond fund scales [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current credit bond market shows a "generally stable, structurally differentiated" characteristic, with widening differences in yields and spreads across different segments, influenced by seasonal marginal changes in both supply and demand [2] - The yield performance indicates that AAA-rated urban investment bonds for 3 to 10 years have increased by 6 basis points (BP), while AA+ rated bonds have risen by 5 to 6 BP, contrasting with a decrease of 1 to 2 BP for AA and below rated 5-year bonds, suggesting a trend of "short flat, medium expansion, long contraction" in spreads [2][3] Market Trends - The net buying scale of credit bonds has decreased from approximately 100 billion yuan at the beginning of November to 50 billion yuan by the end of the month, with short-duration products' transaction share rising from 43% to 58% [3] - The liquidity environment remains supportive, with a stable monetary policy aimed at "steady growth," which is expected to maintain a stable funding environment in December, providing a foundation for low credit spreads [3][4] Structural Opportunities - The release of amortized bond fund scales is significant, with an estimated 1,077 billion yuan expected to open in December, which will further boost demand for 3 to 5-year credit bonds [4][5] - Institutions are beginning to position themselves for mid to long-term credit bonds, with a projected opening scale of approximately 1,300 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a stable demand for high-rated 5-year bonds [5] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for December should focus on "defensive as the foundation, offensive as appropriate," emphasizing the need to control overall risk while targeting high-value bonds that meet the demand from amortized bond funds [6][7] - Recommendations include focusing on 2 to 3-year mid-short duration bonds to capture yield opportunities, particularly in high-rated (AAA, AA+) urban investment and quality industrial bonds, while avoiding sectors with excess capacity and cash flow volatility [7][8] - For stable liability accounts, it is advisable to preemptively position in 5-year high-rated bonds, as these are expected to provide value in the context of the upcoming large-scale opening of amortized bond funds [8]