高市政府“松口”，日本央行本月加息几成定局

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan has significantly increased, with expectations of raising the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, marking the first increase since January of this year [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Hike Signals - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has provided the clearest signal yet for a rate hike, indicating that the central bank will weigh the pros and cons of raising the policy rate based on domestic and international economic conditions, inflation, and financial market status [2]. - Ueda has communicated effectively with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, suggesting government approval for tightening policies to stabilize inflation [2][3]. - Despite previous concerns from Kishida regarding early rate hikes, the current economic outlook and yen depreciation pressures have led to increased support for a rate increase [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market is pricing in an almost 80% probability of a rate hike, with the Bank of Japan's policy committee expected to review upcoming domestic wage data and the Federal Reserve's decisions before finalizing their decision [4]. - Ueda's comments have caused significant market volatility, with the bond market reacting most sensitively, leading to a sell-off in government bonds and a notable rise in yields, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching 1.910%, the highest since July 2007 [4]. - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a drop of 1.89%, reflecting concerns that a rate hike could increase corporate financing costs and negatively impact export-oriented companies [4]. Group 3: Yen Performance - Despite the rising probability of a rate hike, the yen remains under pressure, having depreciated over 4.5% this quarter [5]. - Following Ueda's speech, the yen strengthened slightly against the dollar, moving from 155.8 to around 155.2, indicating growing market confidence in a potential rate hike [5]. - However, inflation expectations continue to rise, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate reaching its highest level since records began in 2004, suggesting that even a rate hike may not support the yen effectively [5].