有色60ETF（159881）涨超0.8%，行业韧性凸显

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper mine supply disruptions have been ongoing this year, leading to a decline in supply growth, while copper smelting capacity is expected to increase by over 2 million tons by 2025 and more than 1 million tons in 2026, exacerbating the conflict between mining and smelting [1] - The TC price has been maintained below -40 USD/ton since April this year, with long-term TC at only 21 USD/ton, and the expectation is that TC prices will remain low in 2026, increasing the probability of domestic copper smelting reductions [1] - The CSPT group's proposal to reduce production capacity by 10% could involve nearly 1 million tons of capacity, and the expectation of reduced copper smelting may further support rising copper prices [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have rapidly increased, with market expectations for a rate cut in December rising to 86.4%, which is likely to benefit both base and precious metals [1] - In the silver market, low inventory levels have supported prices reaching historical highs, with total silver inventory at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange at 1,235 tons, close to a 10-year low, increasing the sensitivity of prices to supply-demand gaps [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering industries such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the Chinese A-share market, with constituent stocks having larger market capitalizations and better liquidity [1]