智通财经网·2025-12-04 13:15Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that incremental capital is expected to maintain a stable net inflow in December, with foreign capital activity likely to continue to rebound [1][4]. Group 1: Market Style Outlook - The market style is expected to focus on large-cap stocks, with a potential shift from growth to value [2]. - Historical data shows that large-cap styles have outperformed in December, influenced by policy expectations from key domestic meetings and the upcoming annual report preview window [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report suggests a "cross-cycle" approach, indicating that policy support may be more pronounced next year [2]. Group 2: External Factors - The likelihood of a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is high, which may lead to a peak in the US dollar index, reducing external liquidity's impact on the market compared to November [2]. - The demand for foreign capital is expected to increase due to the anticipated strength of the RMB, driven by year-end settlement needs and a peak in the dollar index [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Liquidity - December is projected to see stable net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital activity expected to rise [4]. - The monetary market's liquidity remained stable in November, supported by the central bank, and is likely to continue being reasonably ample in December [4]. - New equity fund issuance is expected to provide additional capital for sectors like AI and chips, with significant fundraising occurring in early December [2][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Preferences - Market risk appetite has fluctuated, with a shift towards defensive trading characteristics, favoring low-volatility sectors such as banking and textiles [5]. - Defensive sectors have performed well, while previously high-performing sectors like technology and automotive have seen declines [5].