人民币汇率短期“破7”概率大，潜在“结汇潮”影响有多大

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked discussions about whether it can break the 7.0 mark, with short-term optimism but long-term uncertainties remaining [1][10][12]. Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB entered a rapid appreciation phase in November, with further consolidation in December, showing significant short-term gains against the US dollar [2][6]. - As of December 4, the onshore RMB closed at 7.069, slightly down from the previous trading day, while the central parity rate reached its highest level since October 14, 2024, at 7.0733 [3][10]. Market Influences - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has been a direct driver of the RMB's appreciation, alongside seasonal corporate demand for currency conversion at year-end [6][8]. - Data from the foreign exchange administration indicates a significant surplus in bank settlements, with a notable increase in corporate settlement demand expected in the fourth quarter [7][9]. Economic Support Factors - The stability of the domestic economic fundamentals is providing core support for the RMB exchange rate, with multiple favorable factors contributing to its appreciation [9][13]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has also bolstered market confidence in the long-term stability of the Chinese economy, further supporting the RMB [1][12]. Future Outlook - Experts predict a high probability of the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark in the short term, driven by seasonal demand and favorable market conditions [11][14]. - However, uncertainties remain regarding the RMB's ability to maintain levels below 7.0 in the long term, influenced by various domestic and international factors [12][14].