Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Opendoor Technologies Inc. is undergoing a significant transformation under CEO Kaz Nejatian, shifting towards a software- and AI-driven platform to enhance its residential real estate transaction services [2][4]. Company Transformation - The company is repositioning itself as a market maker focused on tight spreads and proprietary AI for inspections, aiming for a frictionless digital checkout experience [2]. - Early signs of this transformation include a doubling of weekly acquisitions within seven weeks of Nejatian's leadership and the introduction of new AI-powered tools [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Opendoor reported revenue of $915 million, with operating expenses reduced by 41% as the company streamlined its workforce to approximately 1,100 employees [4]. - Inventory turnover improved as sales outpaced purchases, supported by $1.45 billion in cash and restricted cash, with management planning to rebuild inventory for 2026 while targeting profitability [4]. Market Position and Strategy - In a challenging housing market characterized by high mortgage rates, Opendoor sees opportunities through AI-driven pricing and operational efficiency, aiming for long-term margins of 5–7% [5]. - The company's full-stack approach, which includes buying, selling, financing, and crypto-enabled settlement, differentiates it from competitors like Zillow, who are moving towards capital-light models [5]. Historical Context - The stock price of Opendoor has appreciated approximately 783.02% since a previous bullish thesis was published in May 2025, indicating strong execution and alignment with the company's strategic goals [6].