Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China's high-quality development, facing multiple challenges such as macroeconomic changes, demographic shifts, and employment issues, necessitating systematic responses from institutional design and resource allocation [4] Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Current macroeconomic patterns show a "failure of traditional rules," where short-term shocks and long-term structural factors interact, complicating the relationship between inflation and unemployment [5] - The aging population is a long-term factor that suppresses inflation, raising concerns about its impact on economic vitality [5] Group 2: Competition and Economic Efficiency - "Involution" in competition leads to a decline in potential growth rates, slowing productivity growth and reducing investment returns, resulting in a contraction of market size [6] - Over-investment in traditional sectors delays the transition to new growth drivers, causing a series of negative effects including weak CPI and declining employment quality [6] Group 3: Demographic Challenges - The dual pressures of low birth rates and rapid aging are significant challenges during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the total fertility rate falling below replacement levels since 1992 [8] - The aging population increases the old-age dependency ratio, straining pension fund sustainability and creating a demand for elderly care that the current supply system struggles to meet [8] Group 4: Consumption Dynamics - The demographic structure negatively impacts consumption potential, with younger populations decreasing and older individuals having limited consumption capacity due to low labor participation and insufficient social security [9] Group 5: Employment Market Characteristics - The employment market is characterized by new forms of employment, with 310 million individuals in urban self-employment and private sectors, and 200 million in flexible employment as of 2023 [10] - Labor mobility is becoming more localized, which may hinder overall productivity growth [10] Group 6: Policy Recommendations - The focus should shift from merely expanding the economy to improving income distribution, addressing urban-rural income disparities, and enhancing social equity [13] - Investment should transition from physical assets to human capital, emphasizing education and health to foster sustainable economic growth [14]
专访中国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉：“十五五”时期需破解人口转型与就业结构困局 投资重心应从“物”转向“人”
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang·2025-12-04 13:48