升值势头延续！人民币汇率短期“破7”概率大

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration of the Renminbi's appreciation against the US dollar has sparked market interest, with increasing discussions about whether the exchange rate can break the 7.0 mark [1][9]. Exchange Rate Trends - Since November, the Renminbi has entered a rapid appreciation cycle, with further consolidation in December. As of December 3, the onshore and offshore Renminbi rates were 7.0661 and 7.0583, respectively, marking an increase of 506 and 595 basis points since November 20 [2]. - On December 4, the onshore Renminbi closed at 7.069, a slight decrease of 29 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate has shown a narrow upward trend since December began, reaching its highest level since October 14, 2024, at 7.0733 [3][1]. Market Dynamics - The central bank's recent adjustments indicate a signal of "stabilizing the exchange rate" and guiding two-way fluctuations, as the central parity has been consistently set above the market price [4]. - The global currency market has seen increased volatility since late September, yet the Renminbi has maintained a relatively strong position against the US dollar, contributing to a dual strength scenario for both currencies [4]. Factors Supporting Appreciation - The market's expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have been a direct driver of the Renminbi's appreciation, with the dollar index falling below 100 [6]. - The seasonal demand for currency conversion by enterprises at year-end has also supported the Renminbi's exchange rate. Data from the foreign exchange administration shows significant surpluses in bank settlements, indicating strong demand for currency conversion [7][8]. Short-term Outlook - Experts predict a high probability of the Renminbi breaking the 7.0 mark in the short term, supported by seasonal demand and favorable economic conditions [10]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 11 is expected to influence market sentiment and the Renminbi's exchange rate [10]. Long-term Considerations - Despite the potential for short-term appreciation, there are uncertainties regarding the Renminbi's ability to maintain levels below 7.0 in the long run. Factors such as US tariffs and global trade dynamics may exert downward pressure on the Renminbi [11][12]. - The regulatory environment and economic policies are expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the Renminbi, with a balanced approach to managing exchange rate fluctuations [12][13].