Barrick Mining Up 101% in 6 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Retain?

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have surged 101.1% over the past six months, driven by a significant increase in gold prices amid various economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][7]. Performance Comparison - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 52.1% and the S&P 500's rise of 17.3% during the same period [2]. - Compared to its peers, Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen increases of 62.2%, 75.2%, and 36.9%, respectively [2]. Technical Analysis - Barrick's stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025, and is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. - The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since a golden crossover on April 9, 2025, suggesting a bullish trend [5]. Growth Projects - Key growth projects such as Goldrush, Lumwana, and Reko Diq are expected to enhance long-term gold and copper output [7][10]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase [11][12]. Financial Position - Barrick has a strong liquidity position with approximately $5 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of Q3 2025, and generated operating cash flows of around $2.4 billion, up 105% year over year [13]. - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, with a new $1 billion repurchase program authorized in February 2025 [14]. Dividend and Valuation - Barrick offers a dividend yield of 1.7% with a payout ratio of 32%, indicating sustainability [15]. - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.72X, which is a discount to the industry average of 13.16X [22]. Production Outlook - For 2025, Barrick expects attributable gold production to be between 3.15-3.5 million ounces, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024 [20]. - The production outlook is tempered by higher costs and reduced output from certain mines, which may impact overall performance [20]. Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with a projected year-over-year increase of 75.4% for 2025 and 50% for 2026 [21]. Investment Considerations - Barrick's solid financial position, growth projects, and favorable valuation present a positive investment outlook, although rising costs and a soft production forecast warrant caution [23].