张尧浠:金价暂陷调整待数据指引 前景仍是多头蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, indicating a potential consolidation phase, but the overall trend remains bullish [1][11]. Market Performance - On December 3, gold opened at $4206.58 per ounce, briefly rose to $4230 before falling to a low of $4194.70, then peaked at $4241.59 during the US trading session, ultimately closing at $4203.01, down $3.57 or 0.085% [1][11]. - The daily trading range was $46.89, reflecting significant volatility [1][11]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the number of Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, and the global supply chain pressure index, which are expected to support gold prices [2][12]. - The ADP report indicated an unexpected decline in US employment for November, contributing to a bearish trend in the US dollar and enhancing expectations for a rate cut [3][15]. Market Sentiment - Despite favorable market conditions, gold prices have not consistently risen, suggesting a period of consolidation as the market assesses real positions [5][14]. - The probability of a December rate cut is close to 90%, but market sentiment is more focused on the outlook for rate cuts in the following year [5][16]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts show a strong rebound in November, recovering most of October's losses, but a breakthrough above $4400 is necessary to open further upside potential [6][18]. - Weekly charts indicate that gold prices are supported by the 10-week moving average, with a bullish outlook despite some weakening momentum [6][18]. - Daily charts show gold is currently in a consolidation phase below trendline resistance, with multiple moving averages providing support, indicating a favorable outlook for bullish entries [6][18]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $4193 or $4180 and resistance at $4230 or $4245 for gold [10][18]. - For silver, support is noted at $58.00 or $57.80, with resistance at $59.00 or $59.40 [10][18].