四类标的有望成配置主线！专家把脉2026年可转债市场→

Core Viewpoint - Multiple brokerage firms predict that the convertible bond market will maintain high valuations in 2026, driven by a favorable equity market, policy dividends, and continued inflow of "fixed income +" funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since 2025, the convertible bond market has seen a significant recovery in valuations, primarily due to reduced risks from delistings and defaults, increased demand in a low-interest-rate environment, and improved stock market expectations [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index reached a 10-year high in August 2025, reflecting the upward trend in convertible bond valuations [2]. Group 2: Valuation Support Factors - The optimistic outlook for the equity market is expected to be the main support for convertible bond valuations in 2026, with policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to boost market risk appetite [2]. - Strong demand for equity assets and the ongoing "asset shortage" context will sustain the high valuations of convertible bonds, particularly in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The "dual low" strategy, which relies on low prices and low valuations, faces challenges as the number of low-priced convertible bonds decreases and their valuations rise [4]. - Companies are advised to consider index and quantitative strategies due to the increased difficulty in subjective stock selection, focusing on high-price factors and volatility factors [5][6]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Investment focus should be on technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly in areas such as computing power construction, capital expenditure, humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, and semiconductor self-sufficiency [6]. - Attention should also be given to cyclical industries like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, as well as the photovoltaic industry in response to "anti-involution" policies [6].