OEXN:黄金支撑区间巩固与市场预期变化

Core Viewpoint - Despite not reaching the historical high of over $4360 per ounce in October, multiple market valuation models indicate that current gold prices are approaching their reasonable range, reflecting a structural increase in support levels amid rising global economic uncertainty [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing economic slowdown is providing a solid foundation for precious metals, as investors anticipate a series of interest rate cuts by major central banks from next week through 2026, which would lower both nominal and real yields and weaken the dollar [1][2]. - After reaching $4360 in October, gold experienced profit-taking but found stable support above $4000, consolidating around the $4200 range [1][3]. - Various models suggest that the combination of rising global debt and declining interest rates aligns with gold's performance, indicating a structural strengthening of long-term demand [1][3]. Group 2: Downside Potential - Theoretically, gold prices could drop to $3800, but models indicate strong support in that region, with a significant external shock required to breach the $4000 mark [2][4]. - In extreme bearish scenarios, policy rates would need to rise back to 5%, typically associated with increased recession risks, which would again make gold a focal point for safe-haven investments [2][4]. - The recent reversal in market expectations regarding policy paths has reinvigorated gold, with the probability of rate cuts rising to nearly 90% due to weak economic data [2][4]. Group 3: Central Bank Influence - The upcoming central bank meetings will set the policy tone for the coming year, with the independence of major central banks being a crucial variable that could impact gold's structural support [2][4]. - Any factors that undermine the independence of monetary policy are likely to provide stronger structural support for gold, potentially leading to increased gold allocations by multiple central banks and reduced reliance on the dollar [2][4].