Mhmarkets迈汇:实体力量推动全球白银格局重塑

Core Viewpoint - The recent record surge in silver prices is primarily driven by strong physical demand rather than hedge funds, highlighting an unprecedented influence of real demand on financial markets [1][5]. Group 1: Physical Demand - Industry experts emphasize that the current physical demand is at an unprecedented level, with the consensus at a global precious metals conference being "physical is king" [1][5]. - The demand for silver from major emerging economies, particularly in South Asia, has seen a significant increase, with imports rising several times despite high local currency prices [2][5]. - The shift of silver flow from London to Asia is seen as a key factor in the structural changes in the silver market, enhancing the sensitivity of silver prices to Asian end-user demand [2][5]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The mining sector is unable to quickly alleviate market shortages, with the global silver market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years, with annual deficits ranging from 100 million to 200 million ounces [3][6]. - The time required for mining exploration to production is typically 10 to 20 years, and even expansions of existing mines take at least five years, limiting the ability to quickly increase supply [3][6]. - The structural limitations of recycled silver production further reinforce the market's preference for immediate physical availability, emphasizing the "spot is king" characteristic of the market [3][6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a generational shift in how silver is held in Western markets, with significant amounts of metal remaining in institutional accounts and retirement assets, leading to a reluctance to liquidate even as assets transfer to the next generation [6]. - The macroeconomic factors driving record highs in gold prices are also influencing capital allocation to the silver market, suggesting a potential convergence in the gold-silver ratio [6][7]. - The ongoing growth in global investment demand, expanding industrial usage, and the strong absorption capacity of emerging economies are central to the "physical demand-driven" dynamics in the silver market [4][7].