Top 15 Stock Picks For Dec 2025 With Upto 41% Upside By Axis Securities

Market Performance - Nifty 50 experienced a strong rally of over 1500 points since October 2025, recovering from a pullback in July/August 2025, and reached an all-time high of 26,203 on November 28, 2025 [1] - The Midcap index increased marginally by 1%, while the Smallcap index decreased by 9% during the same period [1] Economic Outlook - India's domestic growth trajectory remains strong, supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations for a better FY26 compared to FY25 [2] - Key supportive measures include a 50 bps CRR cut, a 100 bps rate cut, improved bank liquidity, and increased government CAPEX spending [2] - The government has implemented GST 2.0 reforms, indicating a renewed focus on economic reforms [2] Geopolitical Challenges - The geopolitical situation is challenging, with ongoing tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian products, which may affect export orders and corporate earnings [3] - The market remains vigilant regarding tariff negotiations and the substance of earnings from Q3FY26 onwards [3] Valuation Insights - The Indian market has underperformed compared to the US and other emerging markets, currently trading at a PE premium of 60% to the EM index, down from a 97% premium in September 2024 [4] - Relative valuation stabilization does not guarantee an immediate market rally, with key parameters to monitor including US trade negotiations and the revival of the earnings growth cycle [4] Investment Strategy - A focus on mid and small caps is emerging, with expectations for gradual recovery led by strong earnings and improving domestic liquidity [5] - The market is expected to consolidate in the near term, with a focus on 'Quality' stocks, monopolies, and domestically-focused sectors [5] - Recent changes in top picks include booking profits in Hero Motocorp and Shriram Finance, while adding Chalet Hotels and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Avenue Supermarts, State Bank of India, Max Healthcare, and others [7]