The Boeing Company (BA): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - The Boeing Company is experiencing a bullish outlook due to a significant rebound in commercial aircraft deliveries and strong revenue growth, positioning the company for a potential operational and financial turnaround [1][2][6] Financial Performance - Boeing reported a 30% revenue growth, reaching $23.3 billion, driven by an increase in commercial aircraft deliveries from 116 to 160 units [2] - Profitability was impacted by a one-time $4.9 billion charge related to the 777X program, resulting in negative segment margins; however, excluding this charge, commercial margins improved to –4.1% [3] - Free cash flow turned positive at $200 million as production normalized, offsetting one-off payments related to the MAX crisis [5] Production and Delivery - The core 737 MAX program is regaining momentum with FAA approval to increase production from 38 to 42 aircraft per month, with a target of 52 per month by 2026 [3] - The 787 platform is performing well, currently operating at seven units per month and expected to reach eight by year-end [4] Backlog and Demand - Boeing has a backlog of approximately 500 aircraft, indicating strong long-term demand and a clear production plan [4][6] - The defense division reported a 1.7% margin on $6.9 billion of revenue, with expectations for margin expansion as legacy contracts roll off [5] Strategic Initiatives - Key catalysts for Boeing include divestitures like Jeppesen, the pending acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, and improvements in manufacturing quality under new leadership [6] - The company is positioned for margin recovery and stronger free cash flow through 2026–2028, supported by a $636 billion backlog and rising international demand [6]