Should You Hold or Fold EXOD Stock After a 38.3% Decline in a Month

Core Insights - Exodus Movement (EXOD) shares have declined by 38.3% over the past month, significantly underperforming the Zacks Internet – Software industry's decline of 3% [1] - The company has a trailing 12-month price-to-book ratio of 1.41X, which is considerably lower than the industry's average of 5.81X, indicating a favorable valuation [4] - EXOD reported a 51% year-over-year revenue growth and an 82% increase in swap volume in Q3 2025, driven by rising digital asset prices [6][8] - The acquisition of Grateful enhances EXOD's capabilities in stablecoin payments and opens new market opportunities [6][10] Financial Performance - EXOD's revenues grew by 51% year-over-year, supported by increased digital asset prices [8] - The company experienced an 82% year-over-year growth in swap volume, with 28% of this volume coming from B2B swaps [8] - The balance sheet is robust, with $315 million in digital and liquid assets and no debt [10] Market Position and Strategy - EXOD is expanding its partner strategy, adding 16 new partners in Q3 2025, 10 of which are already paying, enhancing its multi-chain liquidity access [9] - The company is entering the high-growth stablecoin payments market, which allows for instant merchant settlements and lower transaction fees [10] - With a total addressable market of over $3 trillion in cryptocurrency and $26 trillion in stablecoin transaction volume, EXOD is well-positioned for growth [11] User Engagement and Challenges - User engagement has softened, with Monthly Active Users dropping from 2.3 million in Q4 2024 to 1.5 million in Q3 2025, despite a 20% year-over-year increase in Quarterly Funded Users [12] - The company faces structural risks due to its reliance on third-party API providers and competitive pressures from exchanges like Coinbase and other fintech companies [13][15] - Earnings volatility is a concern, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate projecting modest year-over-year growth of 3.5% for 2025 [16] Conclusion - Despite challenges such as reliance on third-party APIs and rising competition, EXOD's strong asset base, attractive P/B valuation, and expanding swap and payments ecosystem suggest solid long-term potential [18]