ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - ASML Holding N.V. is viewed positively, with a current share price of $1060.00 and trailing and forward P/E ratios of 37.71 and 34.48 respectively, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence [1] Company Performance - ASML has experienced a 23% increase in stock price since Rebound Capital began coverage in June 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [2] - The company is expected to report third-quarter results on October 15, with an "earnings preview" framework introduced to analyze stock behavior around earnings [2] Valuation and Potential Upside - The intrinsic value of ASML is estimated at €982 per share, compared to the current price of €836, suggesting a potential upside of 17% [3] - A post-earnings dip could present a favorable entry point for investors [3] Market Dynamics and Catalysts - Positive catalysts for ASML include stronger-than-expected bookings, advancements in High NA EUV machines, and increasing demand from the AI memory market [3] - Historically, ASML's stock reacts sharply around earnings, often moving more than 5%, driven primarily by bookings and guidance [4] Management and Investor Focus - ASML's management is conservative, often under-promising while aiming to over-deliver, particularly regarding AI-related demand, which could lead to positive surprises [5] - Analysts expect the market to focus on FY26 revenue guidance rather than quarterly results, predicting a moderate positive reaction of around 5% [5]