S&P 500 Nears a Higher High as VIX Divergence Points to Continued Strength

Market Analysis - The October SPY high of 689.70 is expected to be reached, as markets typically do not end on a high volume high, indicating a test that will determine the next market move [1] - A positive divergence is observed between the SPX and SPX/VIX ratio, with the SPX/VIX ratio making a higher high while the SPX has not [1] SPX and SPX/VIX Ratio Insights - The SPX/VIX ratio usually leads the SPX, suggesting that the SPX will trade to a higher high [2] - Historical data shows instances where the SPX made higher highs while the SPX/VIX did not, and vice versa, indicating potential future movements [2] Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) Monitoring - The ZBT is being monitored for a possible bullish signal, requiring the 10-day average of the NYSE advancing/NYSE Total to reach .40 or lower and then rally to .60 or higher within ten days [3] - The ZBT closed at .38 on November 20 and at .45 on November 21, initiating the countdown, with a target of .60 by December 5 [3] - As of the latest data, the ZBT closed at .55, just .05 shy of the target, with two trading days remaining [3] GSG Commodity Index Outlook - The GSG Commodity Index has rallied 300% from the COVID 2020 low to mid-2022, followed by a narrow trading range that retraced 38.2% of the rally, indicating a potential consolidation phase [4] - Increased volume over the last three months suggests a developing "sign of strength" and a nearing breakout for the GSG index, which includes grains, metals, and energy [4] - The outlook for gold and silver is positive, although higher inflation is anticipated [4]