Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Oscar Health, Inc. is positioned to benefit from a structural shift in the U.S. healthcare system, with a rising medical loss ratio (MLR) indicating a growing need for innovative healthcare solutions [2][5] Company Performance - As of November 28th, Oscar Health's share was trading at $17.97 [1] - Q2 2025 revenue is projected to reach $2.9 billion, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase, while the subscriber base is expected to grow by 28% to over 2 million [2] - The company has excess capital of $577 million, providing a buffer against temporary losses [3] Market Positioning - Oscar's platform simplifies navigation of the insurance system and continues to enhance user value, positioning the company to capture growing demand [3] - The stock trades below 0.5 times sales due to political risk concerns around ACA subsidy renewals, which are unlikely to materialize, indicating substantial upside potential [3] Industry Trends - The healthcare sector is experiencing rising complexity and demand for innovative solutions, with Oscar and Hims highlighting a broader market opportunity [4] - The increase in illness among ACA members is attributed to factors such as spike protein toxicity and Lyme infections, further emphasizing the need for innovative healthcare solutions [2] Historical Context - A previous bullish thesis highlighted Oscar's deep discount due to ACA political risk, strong management, and AI-driven technology, with the stock price appreciating approximately 16.61% since that coverage [5]