光伏产业链多环节下调12月份排产计划

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a decline in production across multiple segments due to short-term market changes and long-term structural issues, leading to a proactive reduction in output by companies [1][3]. Production Decline - In December, the production of various segments in the photovoltaic industry chain saw a month-on-month decline: polysilicon production decreased by 0.96%, silicon wafer production by 15.95%, battery cell production by 12.61%, and module production by 13.58% [1]. - The decline in production is attributed to the fact that actual transaction prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules have fallen below cash costs, making significant production cuts reasonable [1]. Industry Self-Regulation - Continuous production cuts by companies are viewed as a self-regulatory measure to address supply-demand imbalances and implement "anti-involution" strategies within the photovoltaic industry [2]. - The "anti-involution" policies, supported by government departments and industry associations, have begun to show results, with prices in the photovoltaic supply chain starting to recover and profits improving, particularly in the upstream polysilicon segment [2]. Demand Weakness - The ongoing decline in production is also linked to insufficient end-user demand, with a notable drop in new installations in the second half of the year compared to the first half [3]. - From January to October, the domestic new photovoltaic installations reached 252.87 GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%, but the new installations in October alone were 12.6 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 38% [3]. Market Outlook - The industry anticipates that the turning point for the photovoltaic sector may occur between May and June of next year, with expectations for a favorable market in the second half of the year [4]. - The core theme for the photovoltaic industry in 2026 is expected to be "pattern optimization," with prices gradually recovering as the effects of "anti-involution" become more apparent [3].