Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is positioned for strong performance in the AI infrastructure sector, with a focus on strategic progress and execution rather than just quarterly results [1][3][6] Company Overview - Nebius Group N.V. operates in the technology sector, providing full-stack infrastructure for the global AI industry across multiple regions including Europe, North America, and Israel [2] - The company's stock was trading at $94.87 as of November 28th, with a trailing P/E ratio of 163.47 [1][2] Financial Performance - Following a strong Q2 performance that exceeded expectations, the company is anticipated to continue its positive trajectory, with potential for an increase in year-end Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) guidance [3] - The stock price has appreciated approximately 350.68% since previous coverage, indicating successful execution of the company's strategic roadmap [6] Strategic Developments - Clarity on the Phase 1 timeline in New Jersey is crucial, as early availability of capacity could significantly uplift guidance, particularly under the Microsoft deal [4] - Updates on capacity expansion, including new U.S. locations and a recently acquired Alabama site, are expected to enhance partnerships with hyperscalers [4] Margin and Growth Expectations - The company is expected to see continued gross margin expansion, with a reaffirmation of a mid-term EBIT margin target of 20–30% [5] - Strong demand and accelerated U.S. expansion are reinforcing confidence in the company's long-term growth potential [5]