年终行情悬而未决“后补贴时代”车市淘汰赛鸣笛

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market faces uncertainty as it transitions into the "post-subsidy era," with many companies expressing concerns about market volatility and competition intensifying [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - By the end of 2025, the anticipated "tail effect" in the automotive market remains uncertain, with many companies unprepared for the challenges ahead, particularly those without existing orders [2]. - The withdrawal of local vehicle replacement subsidies and the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction are significant factors affecting consumer purchasing decisions [2][3]. - The overall automotive sales in China from January to October reached 27.687 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition among automotive companies is expected to become more transparent and brutal, focusing on product strength, cost control, and user experience as the market moves away from policy-driven sales [1][6]. - Companies are increasingly adopting "bottom-line" subsidy strategies to boost year-end sales, which may raise sales costs and challenge smaller brands with limited profit margins [4][7]. - The market is predicted to experience significant differentiation, with leading companies leveraging scale advantages and brand influence to withstand price competition, while smaller brands may struggle with cash flow and product iteration [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The automotive industry is entering a phase where only a few strong brands are expected to survive, with predictions suggesting that in the future, only five dominant brands will remain in the market [11]. - As the market shifts away from reliance on policies, companies lacking core technology and cost control will find it increasingly difficult to maintain stability [10]. - The transition to a more mature and stable new energy vehicle market is anticipated, but not all companies will be able to remain competitive [8][10].