内需“双引擎”扩容提质 增长新动能释放新潜力

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a dual engine of consumption and investment in driving China's economic growth, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the uncertain external environment [1][6]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Service consumption is expanding and improving, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.3% year-on-year and service retail sales growing by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year [2]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. - The proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to reach 46.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 46.8% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a shift towards service consumption as a key growth driver [2]. Group 2: Investment Structure - Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, grew by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 2.7% [4]. - High-tech industries, particularly in information services and aerospace, are experiencing rapid investment growth, while overall investment growth is slowing [4]. - The impact of fiscal policies, such as special bonds and long-term loans, is expected to support investment growth, although the immediate effects may not be realized until early next year [5][8]. Group 3: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension refinancing facility, indicating a shift in macro policy focus towards service consumption [3]. - The government is implementing various policies to enhance service consumption, including subsidies and support for sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism [3]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan aims to significantly increase the role of domestic demand in economic growth, with a focus on improving consumption rates [6][7].