After a deal value surge in 2025, CFOs should brace for a split M&A market

Core Insights - The M&A market is experiencing a dichotomy with a significant increase in deal value but stagnant overall deal volume as 2025 approaches [2][5] Group 1: Deal Value and Volume - U.S. deal value surged to $598 billion in the third quarter, marking a 56% increase from the previous quarter and the highest level in nearly four years [3] - Despite the rise in deal value, overall deal volume has remained flat, indicating a split market where large strategic and sponsor-backed deals are thriving while midmarket activity is sluggish [5] Group 2: Dealmaker Sentiment - A majority of private equity (90%) and corporate respondents (80%) anticipate increasing their deal closures in the next 12 months, with expectations for total deal value to rise as well [6] - However, optimism has tempered compared to the previous year, with fewer respondents expecting a significant increase in deal volume, indicating a shift towards more modest gains [7] Group 3: Economic Context - Deal confidence is rising amidst mixed macroeconomic signals, with recent Federal Reserve rate cuts improving financing conditions, potentially bolstering M&A activity [9]