成本跌势大于价格跌势 热轧钢厂盈利整体好转

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled coil market is experiencing a low-price fluctuation, with prices expected to recover slightly in December due to reduced production and potential cost declines [2][5][6] Price Trends - After reaching a peak of 6700 yuan/ton in 2021, hot-rolled coil prices have been in a downward trend, with a low of nearly 3000 yuan/ton in June 2025, followed by a slight recovery in the third quarter [2] - The average price for hot-rolled coils in 2025 is projected to be 3355.95 yuan/ton, down 8.64% year-on-year [3][4] Cost Dynamics - The cost of hot-rolled coils is primarily driven by iron ore and coke, which together account for 55% to 60% of total costs [3] - The average cost for hot-rolled coils in 2025 is estimated at 3244.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a 10.9% year-on-year decline [3][4] Profitability Analysis - Despite the overall profitability of hot-rolled coil producers improving, the fourth quarter saw price declines, leading to losses for some producers [5] - The highest profit margin for hot-rolled coils in 2025 is expected to be 264 yuan/ton, while the lowest is projected at -146 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 49.06 yuan/ton, up 311.61% year-on-year [2][5] Production Insights - The production of hot-rolled coils is expected to reach 338 million tons in 2025, a 6.15% increase year-on-year, with October 2025 seeing peak monthly production of 29.44 million tons [4] - The current production levels remain high due to favorable profit margins, although there are indications of potential reductions in output due to market pressures [6]