Why Pimco Ignored 'Sell America' Calls and Won Big

Core Viewpoint - The company maintained a strong position in US assets during a period of uncertainty, leading to favorable outcomes as others reconsidered their investments [1] Group 1: Economic Context - There was significant uncertainty regarding tariffs, which was expected to negatively impact consumer spending and business hiring plans due to increased costs [2][3] - The discussions among colleagues focused on the trade-off between inflation impacts and growth slowdown, with concerns from clients about US policy and asset allocation [4][5] Group 2: Market Observations - Despite concerns, foreign participation in US Treasury auctions remained stable, providing confidence to continue holding and adding to US Treasury positions [6] - The anticipated increase in tariffs was projected to rise from around 2% to a range of 15-20%, influencing investor sentiment and strategies [8][9] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company reduced duration exposure in the US market, recognizing that US Treasuries had outperformed compared to other developed markets like Australia, the UK, and Japan [12] - Opportunities were identified in Japan, Australia, and the UK, with a strategy to scale up investments if rates in these regions continued to weaken [13][14] Group 4: Volatility and Opportunities - The current market environment is characterized by competing forces, including growth from upcoming fiscal measures and tariff-related uncertainties, leading to sustained volatility [15][16] - This volatility presents exciting opportunities in fixed income, with the potential to construct globally diversified portfolios yielding 6-7%, which is attractive compared to cash and equities [17]