张瑜：最确定的景气在哪？ ——张瑜旬度会议纪要No.127

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic environment characterized by a policy-intensive period and an upcoming data vacuum period, which is expected to lead to increased market activity [1][10] - The policy-intensive phase will begin in December with key meetings, including the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, followed by various ministerial meetings [1][10] - The data vacuum period in January and February will lack significant economic data, which historically leads to market volatility and increased activity [1][10] Group 2 - The analysis identifies three macroeconomic divergences: the divergence between export price index and domestic PPI, the contrasting performance of exports and real estate, and the stock market's reliance on valuation rather than earnings growth [2][11] - The core judgment is that the most certain economic growth is likely to be found in the midstream manufacturing sector over the next 3-6 months, supported by four new changes in this sector [3][12] - Midstream manufacturing has seen a reversal in profit dynamics, with overseas gross margins now significantly higher than domestic margins, indicating a shift in profit cycles [3][12] Group 3 - The stability of export demand is a key support for midstream manufacturing, with expectations of a continued rise in global industrial production over the next six months [6][15] - Key categories within high-tech and mechanical exports, such as information technology products, ships, and automobiles, are showing stable demand, further supporting the outlook for midstream manufacturing [6][15] - The current cycle is unique, as midstream manufacturing can rely on overseas markets for profit recovery, with expectations that prices in this sector may rebound sooner than the overall PPI [7][16]