Trump says national debt is ‘peanuts’ and his tariff income will pay everyone a $2,000 dividend too—but the math doesn’t add up

Core Insights - President Trump claims that the tariff regime will generate significant revenue, allowing for debt reduction and potential dividends to American citizens [1][2] - The projected revenue from tariffs is currently falling short of expectations, with actual customs duties for fiscal year 2025 at $195.9 billion, while interest payments on national debt are significantly higher at $1.22 trillion [3][4] - The Congressional Budget Office has revised its long-term projections for tariff revenue down from $4 trillion to $3 trillion, indicating a decrease in expected effectiveness of the tariff scheme [5] Revenue Generation - Tariffs are expected to bring in trillions of dollars to the U.S. economy in the long term, but current figures show only $195.9 billion generated in customs duties for fiscal year 2025 [3] - In October, tariffs generated a record monthly income of $31.4 billion, an increase from $29.7 billion in September [3] Debt Impact - The yearly income from tariffs is estimated to be within the $300 billion to $400 billion range, which is insufficient to cover the interest payments on the national debt [4] - For fiscal year 2026, the government has already incurred $104 billion in interest payments at a rate of 3.355% [4] Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office's recent report indicates a downward revision of tariff revenue projections, with a reduction of $1 trillion in expected deficit reduction [5] - The CBO attributes two-thirds of this revision to new data and adjustments in tariff rates, which have lowered the effective tariff rate overall [5]